Taproom Network

The NFL is back, and Week 1 is usually when months of offseason narratives finally collide with reality.

Some teams have been talked up all summer. Others have barely been mentioned. That creates opportunities, particularly when the market appears to be leaning heavily on what happened last season rather than what these teams could become.

I have four bets against the spread this week, including two home underdogs I think can win outright and a Kansas City team that suddenly seems to have become unfashionable.

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 vs Denver Broncos

Have we really reached the point where Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are being overlooked?

One disappointing season appears to have been enough for plenty of people to move on from Kansas City as a genuine Super Bowl contender. I am not ready to do that. There is still talent throughout this roster and Mahomes remains one of the best quarterbacks on the planet — if not the best.

I think there is a real opportunity to buy Kansas City while the wider conversation has moved towards some of the newer AFC contenders.

Denver is the complete opposite for me. In fact, I think the Broncos might be the most overrated team in football heading into this season.

Their record last year was excellent, but I don’t think they were quite as good as that record suggested. Everyone talked about the favourable schedule New England benefited from, but Denver also had a relatively soft path. I also remain unconvinced by Bo Nix. He is a perfectly capable NFL quarterback, but I think average is much closer to his level than elite.

Denver has also lost some important names from last year’s roster, and their schedule gives them very little time to settle into the new season. Their opening six weeks are about as difficult as I can remember seeing, with quality opposition almost every week.

Going into Arrowhead and asking Nix to keep pace with Mahomes is exactly the sort of spot where I want to oppose Denver. Kansas City does not have to return immediately to the dominant team of previous years. At less than a field goal, it simply has to prove it is still better than a Broncos team I think has been overvalued.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

I also like Denver under 9.5 regular-season wins as a season-long bet. If I am right about the Broncos being overrated, that brutal opening stretch could leave them chasing the season very quickly.

Buffalo Bills -1.5 @ Houston Texans

I am much lower on Houston than the general consensus coming into this season.

There is no questioning the Texans’ defence. It is one of the best units in football and gives them a chance in virtually every game. My issue is how sustainable it is to continually ask a defence to carry so much of the load. Defensive performance can fluctuate significantly from season to season, and eventually Houston needs its offence to become a bigger part of the reason it wins games.

That puts plenty of pressure on C.J. Stroud. His rookie season created enormous expectations, but I am still waiting for him to make the next jump and establish himself among the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. There are also questions at wide receiver, where injuries have left Houston looking thinner than it would have hoped.

Buffalo has far fewer questions for me. Josh Allen remains one of the very best players in football and the Bills once again look capable of competing for the AFC. There is change after moving on from Sean McDermott, but sometimes a fresh voice is exactly what a contender needs when it has repeatedly fallen just short.

I expect Houston’s defence to make this competitive, but with such a small spread I am happy to trust Allen and the team I believe is better on both sides of the ball overall.

Pick: Buffalo Bills -1.5

Indianapolis Colts +3.5 vs Baltimore Ravens

It is easy to forget just how exciting Indianapolis looked before injuries derailed last season.

With Daniel Jones at quarterback, the Colts were putting up huge offensive numbers and for a stretch looked like one of the most dangerous teams in football. Jones appeared completely rejuvenated in Indianapolis and looked far more like the player who once earned a significant contract in New York than the quarterback who eventually lost his job there.

Now he is back, and so is an offence with plenty of weapons around him. If Jones can rediscover anything close to the form he showed before getting injured, I think Indianapolis is going to be a difficult team to deal with.

Baltimore, meanwhile, is a team I have struggled to trust for some time.

There is obviously huge talent on the roster and Lamar Jackson remains capable of taking over a game by himself, but the Ravens have continually disappointed compared to expectations. The change at head coach could eventually prove to be exactly what they needed, but I am not prepared to automatically assume that everything which has gone wrong disappears because there is a different man on the sideline.

The Colts are at home, Jones is back and we are getting more than a field goal. This is not simply a bet where I am hoping Indianapolis keeps things close.

I think they can win the game outright.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +3.5

New York Giants +3 vs Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is one of the more popular teams heading into this season, and unlike some of my other picks, I am not particularly looking to oppose that optimism.

I actually like the Cowboys.

The reason I am taking New York is because I think the Giants might be one of the teams being overlooked.

Jaxson Dart showed enough during his rookie season to make me believe a significant second-year jump is possible. Young quarterbacks do not always develop in a straight line, but Dart has already shown he belongs at this level and New York has made a real effort to build a strong offence around him.

That is what makes the Giants interesting. This is not simply a rebuilding team hoping its young quarterback can drag it forward. There is talent around Dart and enough quality elsewhere on the roster for New York to be competitive immediately.

Week 1 is often a good time to back a team before the wider market has caught up with its improvement. Dallas might well go on to have a strong season, but I think the same could be true of the Giants.

Getting a full field goal at home is enough for me. Like Indianapolis, I think New York has a genuine chance of winning outright rather than simply sneaking inside the number.

Pick: New York Giants +3

Week 1 picks

Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
Buffalo Bills -1.5
Indianapolis Colts +3.5
New York Giants +3

Bonus: Denver Broncos Under 9.5 Wins