Last week I called the Denver Broncos the most overrated team in the NFL. They responded by losing 31–10 to Kansas City.
I appreciate them getting straight to the point.
The published picks are now 4–1 against the spread to start the season. Kansas City, Buffalo and the Giants delivered in Week 1, Indianapolis let us down, and Buffalo added another cover against Detroit on Thursday night. The Broncos under 9.5 wins bet is still running and is not included in that record.
Five bets do not make a season. But I am certainly not going to apologise for taking another swing at a team I thought was overrated before it was dismantled in front of everyone.
Here are my four remaining Week 2 picks, using the bookmaker lines from Sunday afternoon.
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @ Denver Broncos — the hype still costs too much
Apparently, losing by three touchdowns was not enough to knock all the optimism out of Denver’s price.
The Broncos are still favourites against a Jacksonville team that looked strong in its opener. I think that says more about the reputation Denver brought into the season than the football it has actually played.
This is not me watching one bad performance and deciding the Broncos are finished. The argument was there last week: an excellent record can disguise a less impressive team, and I do not think Bo Nix is the quarterback the hype has tried to make him. Capable? Yes. Someone I want to pay a premium to back? No.
Usually, this is exactly the sort of spot that makes me nervous. One team looked brilliant, the other looked awful, and suddenly everyone thinks the next result should be obvious. Chasing last week’s winners is a good way to end up buying at the wrong price.
But the distinction here matters. I was already down on Denver. Jacksonville’s convincing start strengthens my interest in the Jaguars; it did not create my doubts about the Broncos. I still do not think the public has fully caught up with Denver’s actual level.
The Jaguars look like a team capable of making this uncomfortable, not one travelling to Denver hoping to keep the score respectable. I think they can win outright, and getting points only makes the case more appealing.
The Broncos might bounce back. They might also simply be the team I said they were. I am backing the second explanation.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
New England Patriots −5.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers — stop judging a whole game by its ending
Pittsburgh won and New England lost. If that is the full extent of your analysis, this pick probably looks strange.
I was not particularly impressed by the Steelers in their opener. Getting the win matters in the standings, but it does not automatically make the performance convincing. Equally, New England’s dreadful fourth quarter should not erase everything that came before it.
Against Seattle’s elite defence, Drake Maye’s first three quarters were significantly better than the final discussion suggested. Evan Lazar’s film review for Patriots.com recorded +0.30 expected points added per drop-back through three quarters, falling to −0.49 in the fourth. He went from one touchdown and no interceptions to throwing three picks in the final quarter.
Those mistakes count. This is not an exercise in deleting the bad plays until the numbers say something flattering. But there is a difference between an offence that could do nothing all night and one that unravelled late after putting itself in position to win. New England fits the latter description.
There are qualifications: Seattle played most of the game with backup quarterback Drew Lock, so the defensive performance needs that context. New England also lost A.J. Brown during the game, which contributed to the offensive disruption. Even allowing for that, I saw considerably more to work with than the final score suggests.
Alternative lines asking New England to win by more could be interesting at the right price. I can see a proper bounce-back performance here, rather than a scruffy escape. But that is not an extra official selection: I am keeping the pick at the standard −5.5.
Pick: New England Patriots −5.5
New York Giants +6.5 @ Los Angeles Rams — stop pricing the badge
At some point, we might have to stop treating the Giants as a punchline.
I backed them against Dallas because I thought the talent was being overlooked. What impressed me was not just the result. They looked organised, well drilled and professional — as convincing in those areas as I can remember seeing them for a long time.
There is talent peppered throughout this roster, and Jaxson Dart does not have to perform miracles on every possession for New York to compete. The intriguing possibility is that the Giants finally have the coaching to turn those individual pieces into something coherent. One game is not proof, but it was a very encouraging first piece of evidence.
The Rams have real defensive problems to manage. Myles Garrett is heading to injured reserve following the decision to undergo knee surgery, and safety Kamren Kinchens has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Those are meaningful absences against a Giants offence I already liked.
There is a counterargument. Aaron Donald is expected back, and New York has secondary problems of its own: Paulson Adebo is on injured reserve and Deonte Banks is questionable. I am not pretending this is a healthy Giants team taking on a helpless opponent.
I simply think the gap is smaller than this spread suggests. Los Angeles still has the reputation; New York is beginning to show the substance. Getting 6.5 points gives us room for the Giants to play a competitive game without needing everything to go their way.
This is a bet on the Giants being better than their old reputation, not the Rams suddenly forgetting how to play football.
Pick: New York Giants +6.5
Philadelphia Eagles −7.5 @ Tennessee Titans — Philadelphia do not need to be perfect
The Eagles have things to fix. Fortunately for them, Tennessee looks like a team with a much longer list.
I think Philadelphia has the potential to be strong this season, but I want more from the passing game. There is another level to reach, and I expect a more convincing performance through the air this week.
That does not mean assuming everything clicks because the fixture looks favourable. Laying more than a touchdown on the road demands a proper performance, and Philadelphia cannot afford to spend the afternoon keeping an inferior opponent interested.
But I struggle to look at Tennessee and see a team ready to consistently punish those imperfections. The Titans look a state to me. I am far more comfortable expecting Philadelphia to improve than expecting Tennessee to suddenly provide a complete performance.
The number matters: −7.5 needs an eight-point win, so a routine seven-point victory would not be enough. This is not the same bet as taking the Eagles at −6.5. Even with that hurdle, I think the quality gap gives Philadelphia the opportunity to put clear distance between the teams.
The Eagles do not need to solve their entire season in one afternoon. They need their passing game to take a step forward and to play closer to their ceiling than Tennessee can play to theirs. I am backing them to do it.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles −7.5
The Week 2 card
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @ Denver Broncos
New England Patriots −5.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
New York Giants +6.5 @ Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles −7.5 @ Tennessee Titans
Season record entering these picks: 4–1 ATS. Thursday’s winning Bills −4.5 selection is already included. The Denver season-win total is separate.
Leave a Reply