It is a good thing if Kylian Mbappé wins the Ballon d’Or tomorrow.
Not because I think he has had a better season than Harry Kane. He has not.
It would be good because it would suggest the award is finally being judged as an individual prize, rather than automatically going to the best player from the most decorated team.
For years, the Ballon d’Or has felt like a team award with one player’s name written on it. The club that wins the Champions League produces the winner. The country that wins the World Cup produces the winner. The individual contribution can become secondary to the team’s success.
That is not what the award should be.
It should go to the best individual player.
That is why I have no issue with Mbappé moving from 25/1 to 2/1. The change in his odds has completely altered the race, and it is refreshing to think that voters might be prepared to look beyond the trophy cabinet.
But Mbappé over Harry Kane?
Really?
Mbappé has had an excellent year. His numbers are outstanding, and there have been plenty of occasions when he has looked like the most gifted footballer on the planet.
At his best, I still think he is the best player in the world. He can beat a defender from a standing start, destroy a team in transition and finish chances with a ruthlessness that very few players can match.
He has also produced the kind of moments that stay in the memory. That is a legitimate Ballon d’Or argument.
It is not the same as having the best overall season.
Kane has scored 73 goals for club and country. Mbappé has scored 58 and added 14 assists. Kane also scored six times at the World Cup, performed well for England and remained the focal point of Bayern Munich’s attack.
Those numbers do not tell the whole story, but they tell us quite a lot.
Kane was not just a penalty-box striker collecting goals. He linked play, created chances and carried an enormous responsibility for Bayern and England. He was not brilliant in a handful of major moments before disappearing for weeks at a time. He was brilliant almost every week.
That is the difference for me.
Mbappé may have the higher ceiling, but Kane produced the higher level more consistently.
If the Ballon d’Or is genuinely about the best individual player, Kane has the strongest case.
Lamine Yamal is the player who makes the trophy argument most difficult to dismiss. He combined individual brilliance with the kind of team success that has traditionally decided this award. He was central to Barcelona’s achievements and helped Spain win the World Cup.
If someone wants to vote for Yamal, I understand it. He has a coherent case based on both performance and success.
Mbappé winning would mean something different.
It would mean the voters had finally stopped treating the Ballon d’Or as a reward for the best player on the best team. It would mean they had decided that individual performance should matter more than the number of medals around a player’s neck.
Good.
That is exactly how it should work.
But if the voters are genuinely separating the individual award from the team award, I cannot understand how they can overlook Kane’s season.
There is an obvious argument that Mbappé is the better footballer. If I had to choose one player for one match, I might still choose him. If both players are at their absolute peak, Mbappé probably has the higher ceiling.
The Ballon d’Or is not awarded for the highest ceiling.
It is not awarded for the most exciting highlights, the biggest reputation or the player we believe will dominate football over the next five years.
It is awarded for the season in front of us.
And Kane’s season was better.
He scored more. He delivered more consistently. He performed on the biggest international stage. He created as well as finished. He gave Bayern exactly what they bought him to provide, while continuing to produce at a level that is almost difficult to process.
Mbappé may still become the defining player of his generation. He may win this award several times. He may eventually produce a season so overwhelming that nobody can seriously argue against him.
But this is a strange year to finally give him the Ballon d’Or.
His best level is extraordinary. His season was not better than Kane’s.
Harry Kane has spent most of his career being judged against what he had not won. His individual achievements have repeatedly been treated as less important because his teams did not collect the biggest trophies.
Tomorrow, the voters should judge what he actually did.
If the award is finally becoming an individual prize, Kane should win it.
Mbappé over Kane?
Really?

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